In the culinary symphony of Southeast Asia, Thailand and Vietnam may seem like harmonious notes at first glance. Tourists might lazily associate them with picturesque beaches, but beneath the surface, a profound disparity emerges—one defined by the intriguing concept of the primacy ratio.
The primacy ratio, the population proportion between a country’s largest and second-largest cities, unfolds a tale of geopolitical dynamics. In most nations, the second-largest city tends to be half the size of the largest one, but Thailand and Vietnam, in close proximity, defy this convention.
Picture this: Thailand’s bustling capital, Bangkok, stands as the quintessential primate city, dwarfing its second-largest city, Chiang Mai, by an astounding factor of 8.8. This isn’t just about headcount distribution; it orchestrates the very essence of the nation.
Researcher Jack Fong, amidst the political tumult of 2010, underscored Bangkok’s pivotal role as the ultimate primate city. Here, the entire spectrum of political power, economic prowess, and cultural influence converges—from prestigious hospitals and universities to government strongholds, military installations, and the revered royal family. Bangkok’s centrality in Thailand becomes more than just a geographical phenomenon; it’s a strategic vulnerability for potential coup d’états.
Beyond geography, the Chao Phraya river basin paints a cartographic tale of Thailand’s centrifugal force, with the nation seemingly orbiting around the nucleus of Bangkok. Institutional undercurrents further amplify this dynamic, as an elite class’s stronghold on power dictates the gravitational pull of wealth towards Bangkok’s backyard. A semi-democratic system, while providing a semblance of governance, curtails dissent and hinders meaningful dialogue for change.
Yet, this concentration brings perks—streamlining transportation, slashing bureaucracy costs, and fostering a pattern of urbanization that begets specialized professionals, be they doctors, engineers, chefs, surgeons, or educators.
Now, cast your gaze eastward to the slender silhouette of Vietnam, a country playing host to the intriguing tale of two cities—Hanoi and Saigon. The government’s 2021 census unveils a remarkable equilibrium, with Saigon edging out Hanoi by a slim margin, yielding a primacy ratio of 1.09. Even with a liberal estimate of Saigon at 10 million and Hanoi at 9 million, the ratio barely nudges to 1.1—the world’s lowest.
This equilibrium bequeaths Ho Chi Minh City an enviable advantage—significant leverage and negotiation tools. The Vietnamese government, cognizant of this unique primacy ratio, endeavors to diffuse power, preventing its concentration in a singular epicenter.
The narrative takes an introspective turn as the author, a Saigon resident, challenges the notion of Saigon’s natural superiority over Hanoi. Delving into history, from the Tây Sơn – Nguyễn Civil War to French colonization, the author unpacks the intricate interplay between human choices and geographic determinism.
During French administration in the 1860s, Saigon was a mere hamlet compared to Hanoi’s burgeoning population. Post-war, Saigon emerged as a developmental hub, albeit enduring deurbanization during the Bao Cấp era. The ebb and flow of population dynamics, influenced by government policies, insurgency, and economic shifts, unfurls a complex tapestry of historical development.
In the midst of this historical odyssey, the author poses a compelling hypothesis: the 1.1 primacy ratio may owe its existence more to the Bao Cấp era than the Vietnam War. This period of deurbanization, driven by government initiatives and demographic shifts, potentially leveled the demographic playing field between Saigon and Hanoi.
The author refrains from offering a conclusive answer, acknowledging the perpetual tug-of-war between institution and geography in the realm of social studies. Saigon’s potential geographic advantages as a trading hub, nestled closer to the sea and shielded from storms, dance with the economic allure of the Mekong Delta—a fertile ground for the emergence of a bustling port city.
In essence, the juxtaposition of Thailand and Vietnam, explored through the lens of the primacy ratio, reveals a rich tapestry woven with historical intricacies, institutional nuances, and the ever-present influence of geography. The geopolitical ballet, performed on the stage of Southeast Asia, invites contemplation and challenges preconceived notions about the destiny of cities like Saigon and Hanoi.